The DV NBA Playoffs Preview

As I sit back and enjoy the afterglow with my annual post-season cigarette, I only have to ask, "Was it good for you?  Tender, I hope."  This NBA season was a blur.  As always, there were numerous surprises, some of which did not surprise me at all (the emergence of the Trailblazers) and some of which nobody could have seen coming (the complete implosion of the Bulls, the ascent of the Hornets to the upper echelon of the league), and by that I of course mean that I failed miserably at predicting them.  A side note to Orlando fans:  yes, I projected that you'd miss the playoffs, but I also included the qualifier unless Dwight Howard turns into the next Shaq.  As Howard clearly is the next Shaq, I'm giving myself half credit for that one.  But let's talk playoffs.

The Leastern Conference

Despite the fact that the Eastern Conference sucks to an extent at which David Stern is actually considering permanently changing the name of the Conference to "The Eastern Conference Sucks," and going to a conference independent playoff seeding system (one of those two things is true, guess which one), there actually are two legitimate title contenders in Detroit and Boston, who, thanks to the incredible weakness of their peers, have the two best records in basketball.  The conference also has LeBron James-- I mean, the Cleveland Cavaliers... no, I mean LeBron James.  And as last season's playoffs proved, that may be all you need to get destroyed in the Finals by whoever makes it from the West.  Along with Detroit and Boston, Orlando was the conferences third division champion and 50-game-winner, so Howard will have an opportunity to prove that he's reached LeBron's team-carrying level in a playoff atmosphere.  Let's take a look at the match-ups and project away.

Round 1 

Boston vs. Atlanta 

Nobody's giving Atlanta much of a shot in this one, and I'm no exception.  Any team in the league can get hot and win a game, but in a seven game series, the fact that Boston has three players better than Atlanta's best player is likely to shine through.  Also, there's a reason why Atlanta only won 37 games this year, there's a reason why Boston won 66, and there's a reason why teams win in the playoffs.  They're all the same reason:  defense.

Projection:  Boston wins 4-0

Detroit vs. Philadelphia

The 76ers surged into the seventh seed only to fade a little bit down the stretch.  The Pistons, meanwhile, continue to prove to everyone that putting five good players on the floor every night -- and it's nice when you have five good players who never get injured -- is a solid strategy for success.  Detroit walks away with this one, but they always seem to give up a game.

Projection:  Detroit wins 4-1

Orlando vs. Toronto

Toronto remains the kind of team that doesn't win in the playoffs.  Sub-par rebounding and a post weapon who shoots as many jumpers as he uses his considerable post skills are the usual culprits, and, in this case, not enough serviceable big men to use up fouls on the real Cloverfield monster, Dwight Howard.  Still, they have shooters, and could easily steal a couple from a still-thin Orlando squad.

Projection:  Orlando wins 4-2 

Cleveland vs. Washington 

The Wizards may be the unluckiest team in the league, as Arenas is still shaking off the rust from a prolonged absence and Caron Butler can't be reasonably expected to be 100% for this series.  Throw in the fact that LeBron will be out for blood, mainly because he's the most league's most unstoppable force, but also because of some questionable Wizards' media quotes, and this Wiz will suffer the same fate as the one starring Michael Jackson.

Projection:  Cleveland wins 4-0 

Round 2 

Boston vs. Cleveland

The DV Admin has been in my ear with his all-around Celts hatery, and he thinks LeBron is enough to knock off the Celtics.  I disagree.  Even though Ben Wallace was seemingly acquired for the sole purpose of putting the bother on Kevin Garnett in just such a series, he's not good enough to make much of an impact anymore.  And even though Cleveland took the season series 2-1, and their only loss was of the last-second variety, the Celtics are just too good both defensively and on the boards to go down in a seven game series to as mediocre a supporting cast as LeBron boasts.

Projection:  Boston wins 4-2 

Detroit vs. Orlando

Sooner or later, somebody's going to keep the Pistons from advancing to the conference finals.  Before the season, I thought it'd be Chicago,  Clearly, I was wrong about that, and I won't make the same mistake again.  The Pistons are too smart a team, and Orlando too inexperienced, for any other result than a sixth consecutive Eastern Conference Finals appearance for the boys from Motor City.

Projection:  Detroit wins 4-1. 

Conference Finals

Boston vs. Detroit

This has all the earmarks of a classic series.  KG vs. Sheed.  Rip vs. Ray.  Tayshaun all over Paul Pierce.  Rondo rubbing his crazy energy all over Chauncey Billups' jersey... when he isn't getting posted up, which I expect a lot of in this series.  Boston clearly has the edge in premier talent, but Detroit has been here so many times before, and maybe more importantly, they've been here together.  My gut says that's enough for them to grind out another Finals appearance, but my mind says that Garnett is going to be playing like his career depends on this one, and he probably will.

Projection:  Boston wins 4-3

The Bestern Conference

Who's coming out of the West?  Forget "to be or not to be," that is the question.  Conventional wisdom would state that since most of the best teams are from the Western Conference, whoever comes out of the West will win the Finals.  Yet, the West has dominated since Jordan's retirement, and the East still manages to sneak away with its share of titles.  There are two obvious reasons for this.  One is that it's flat out harder to play better teams.  Any team that makes it to the Finals from the West is going to have to rack up 12 wins over really good teams first.  They're likely to get beat up a bit in the process.  The other aspect is that, in spite of the East's overall weakness, the best teams in the East are just as good as the best teams in the West.  Put Boston in the West and they probably still win 60 games.  Put the Lakers in the East and they probably don't win 66.  At any rate, get ready for a wild show, because these conference playoffs are totally up in the air.  I'm not even sure it makes sense to make any sorts of predictions, but I'm going to anyway, because that's what keeps the Manwich on my plate.

Round 1 

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver

Will Bynum be back in time for this one?  Will it even matter?  With Kobe, Gasol and Odom firing on all cylinders, and with Denver's defense, which finished the first half of the season among the league's best, fading badly over the last couple months, I expect these games to be high scoring, but I also expect at least three blowouts against the Nugs.  Iverson has finally proven he can coexist with another elite scorer, but Carmelo hasn't proven that he can play defense for more than a quarter at a time.  The biggest question is probably, "Who's going to slow down Kobe?" And the answer, as usual, is "nobody."

Projection:  LA wins 4-1 

New Orleans vs. Dallas 

Yeah, I know:  Dirk is weak.  But he's also got a wealth of playoff experience, and the entire Mavs organization should be looking to prove that last year's embarassing ouster to the Warriors was an aberration, a product of a hugely unfavorable matchup and the intimate knowledge Don Nelson had of their roster.  This will be the first playoff series, on the other hand, for budding superstar and MVP candidate Chris Paul, who is doing his best to make a pretty good center in Andrew Bogut look like a Sam Bowie-level misstep.  Experience is going to win out, as it generally does.

Projection:  Dallas wins 4-2 

San Antonio vs. Phoenix

If Shaq -- even an old and declining Shaq -- can't change the formula enough for the Suns to get past the Spurs, nothing can, and that may have been the drive behind GM Steve Kerr's decision to ship out malcontent Shawn Marion for the Big Aristotle.  The Spurs are obviously still a great team, but as their role players have aged, they haven't done much in the way of replacing them.  I wouldn't expect Robert Horry to hit any more Big Shots, but Bruce Bowen seems to be able to hang onto his shrinking career by getting progressively dirtier.  The over/under on the times he kicks Amare Stoudemire in this series is set at eight.  I'm taking the over.

Projection:  Phoenix wins 4-2 

Utah vs. Houston 

The Rockets had one of the most impressive winning streaks in the history of the league after Yao sat down with a bout of the Olympic fever... I mean, a stress fracture.  But without him, they shouldn't be expected to be able to defend the precision of Jerry Sloan's constant pick-and-roll offense between Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer, and the shooters they're surrounded by.  And how many times has Tracy McGrady been out of the first round of the playoffs?

Projection:  Utah wins 4-1 

Round 2

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Utah Jazz

As good as the Jazz are, it's estimated by the NBA scientists on my staff that the Lakers since acquiring Pau Gasol have been roughly eight times better.  Why Gasol has been able to fit so seamlessly into Phil Jackson's/Tex Winters' notoriously tough-to-pick-up triangle offense is anybody's guess -- though he does have the ideal skillset for it -- but the results have been pretty astounding.  It's going to take a special team to knock them off, and that team will not have a mountain in its logo.

Projection:  LA wins 4-1 

Dallas vs. Phoenix

Yes, I know I said that Dallas has a lot to prove.  But they'll probably figure they've proven it by avoiding another first round exit, and by beating the favored Hornets.  They do not have an answer for the new look Suns, a team that goes 8 deep with really good players and will likely run them into the ground, though Shaq will probably be watching more than half the time, either because he's on the bench, or because he just doesn't feel like running down the floor that many times.

Projection:  Phoenix wins 4-2 

Conference Finals

Phoenix vs. Los Angeles

I could see this being a series for the ages.  Bynum should be back and running around, so it'll definitely be interesting to see him go hopefully seven games against Shaq, not to mention the Pau/Amare matchup, the bad blood between Kobe and Raja Bell, and the whole neverending Kobe-Shaq storyline, which is sure to flare up as the series progresses.  I'm just keeping my fingers crossed that this occurs.  I mainly projected it to happen because I want it to happen so badly.

Projection:  Phoenix wins 4-3 

NBA Finals

Phoenix vs. Boston 

How many future Hall of Famers would play in this series?  At least three.  Maybe as many as five.  That used to be a regular occurrence, but with the proliferation of free agency and league expansion, it's a lot less frequent than it used to be.  I honestly don't even want to project who would win this series due to the Heisenberg Principal of Uncertainty... I don't want to taint it with my meddling.  But I will anyway.  Let's say that the Celtics' defense and the Suns' offense cancel each other out.  The Celtics' offense is better than the Suns' defense.  Case closed.

Projection:  Boston wins 4-2