I've been known to win an Oscar pool or two in my day, but the Golden Globes are a different animal entirely. Unlike the Oscars, the winners here are selected by a mysterious group of about 40 "journalists" known as the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, and are a bit more cagey and unconventional, especially in the television categories. Since I know nothing about television, I'm going to stick to the Movie side of things and give you my predictions for this Sunday's 73rd Annual Golden Globe Awards.
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
NOMINEES
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
WILL WIN
Spotlight. This award is given out by journalists, and while Room and Carol are both beloved films by critics, Spotlight is their chance to reward a film about themselves, and thankfully a good enough movie to deserve the award.
SHOULD WIN
Mad Max: Fury Road. How often are genre pictures this well crafted? If we're going solely on the most fun I had in a movie theater while also not having to turn off my brain in the last decade, it's hard to pick a better film than Mad Max: Fury Road.
Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)
NOMINEES
The Big Short
Joy
The Martian
Spy
Trainwreck
WILL WIN
The Martian. Despite not being a comedy, I think The Martian is going to begin picking up momentum on its road to eventual Oscar triumph this weekend. It's a good movie, but it's still not a comedy.
SHOULD WIN
The Big Short. Not only is this one a comedy, it's a comedy with teeth. You can feel the outrage and vitriol for our economic system coming at you in this film, but keeping a smile on your face through it all is part of the film's true magic.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)
NOMINEES
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Will Smith, Concussion
WILL WIN
Leo. The Globes love Leo. They've given him a matching pair for The Aviator and The Wolf of Wall Street, and lord knows they want him back on that stage this year.
SHOULD WIN
Tough call, but I'll go with Michael Fassbender. He managed to wrap his mouth around Aaron Sorkin's dialogue like a pro, plus I happen to think he'll get left off the Oscar shortlist in this category, so give him some love now.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)
NOMINEES
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Rooney Mara, Carol
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
WILL WIN
Brie Larson
SHOULD WIN
Brie Larson. Provided Cate & Rooney split the Carol vote, there's really no contest here. Room is a harrowing and remarkable film, and much of its success is due to Brie Larson's amazing performance. She'll likely go on to take the Oscar as well, provided they don't split Cate & Rooney up into Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress respectively.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)
NOMINEES
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Steve Carell, The Big Short
Matt Damon, The Martian
Al Pacino, Danny Collins
Mark Ruffalo, Infinitely Polar Bear
WILL WIN
Matt Damon. It's hard for me to argue with this call, especially considering that The Martian effectively required Damon to be a likable enough protagonist for the whole film to work. Likability and charm are two things the actor has in spades, and since he probably won't win the Oscar, this will be his moment in the spotlight.
SHOULD WIN
Steve Carell. It's tough to single out anyone from The Big Short's note perfect ensemble, but if anyone's most deserving, it's Steve Carell. His performance is light years from what audiences typically expect from the actor, as he deftly balances comedy and drama in one of the best performances of his career. He'll likely lose due to vote splitting with co-star Christian Bale.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)
NOMINEES
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
Melissa McCarthy, Spy
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
WILL WIN
Jennifer Lawrence. My god, don't get the HFPA started on J-Law. They love her. She's like their Sally Field and they give her awards every year, even if she's not in a movie. The only thing standing in her way would be Amy Adams, but she's not nominated this year.
SHOULD WIN
Melissa McCarthy. The most oft-repeated criticism of Melissa McCarthy as an actress has been her lack of dimension. I will admit that both Bridesmaids, The Heat, and especially Tammy mostly relied on her to curse or interject a random non-sequitir for laughs, but her performance in Spy was spectacular. She demonstrated plenty of range and still managed to get the bulk of the laughs despite a film-stealing performance by Jason Statham.
Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
NOMINEES
Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
Idris Elba, Beast of No Nation
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
WILL WIN
Mark Rylance. I think Stallone could pull off an upset here, but Rylance is an acclaimed British actor with very little exposure here in the States, and his scene stealing performance in Bridge of Spies was the highlight of the film. This could be the start of his awards season sweep in this category, but don't be surprised to see Stallone pull a Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler and take the prize.
SHOULD WIN
Paul Dano. If we're going solely on who I think surprised me the most, I'd go with Paul Dano. I've found him grating as an actor ever since he tried to keep pace with Daniel Day Lewis in There Will Be Blood. In Love & Mercy, however, his portrayal of Brian Wilson was subtle, nuanced, and he nailed the singing. Plus, he had to dress up like Hitler in that other shitty awards movie he's in, so at least take pity on him.
Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
NOMINEES
Jane Fonda, Youth
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Helen Mirren, Trumbo
Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
WILL WIN
Jennifer Jason Leigh
SHOULD WIN
Jennifer Jason Leigh. The fact that JJL has never been nominated for an Oscar is a travesty and this is the year to right that injustice. While this category is going to be a tough one for her to crack in the Oscar race, an award from the Globes would help her cause and frankly, she's the best thing about the movie. It's time.
Best Director
NOMINEES
Todd Haynes, Carol
Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
WILL WIN
Alejandro Gonzaález Iñárritu. Last year, the DGA & Oscars award Iñarritu for Birdman, while the Globes selected Richard Linklater for Boyhood. I think the HFPA makes up for that here, though they're ignoring four other deserving directors. If anyone steals this one, it's Ridley Scott, who I think will win the Oscar.
SHOULD WIN
George Miller. Look at him up there, happier at 70 than you've ever been. Why? Because he knew he was sitting on one of the best, most visceral films of the year, and he took guys half his age to task with his controlled and assured work behind the camera. I think all five of these directors are deserving, but Miller just slightly more so.
Best Screenplay
NOMINEES
Room
Spotlight
The Big Short
Steve Jobs
The Hateful Eight
WILL WIN
Spotlight. This is another situation where I could see it going to Room or The Hateful Eight, but Spotlight first gained notoriety after topping the notorious Hollywood Black List two years ago. The additions made by director Tom McCarthy certainly helped flesh the film out, making this the perfect one-two punch.
SHOULD WIN
Steve Jobs. Try condensing the life of one of the true innovators of the technological age into a two hour movie with only three scenes, all set in the moments before product launches. I couldn't do it if I tried, which is why Aaron Sorkin is better than most mortals. This is his most Aaron Sorkin film yet, but it's also one of his best scripts, hands down.
Best Original Score
NOMINEES
Carol
The Danish Girl
Inside Out
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
WILL WIN
Inside Out
SHOULD WIN
Inside Out. Disney did something with Inside Out that they never do. They let Michael Giacchino's score play over their studio logo, something that has never happened with a Pixar film before. That's how good the film's score is, and that's only the first thirty seconds of it. Brilliant work, as always, from one of our greatest living film composers.
Best Original Song
NOMINEES
Love Me Like You Do, Fifty Shades of Grey
One Kind of Love, Love & Mercy
See You Again, Fast and Furious 7
Simple Sound #3, Youth
Writing’s on the Wall, Spectre
WILL WIN
See You Again
SHOULD WIN
See You Again. Provided Vin Diesel comes out and sings it, I'm more than okay with this. Can I also say, for the record, that Writing's on the Wall is the worst James Bond song since Die Another Day. That song is total dog shit.
Best Animated Feature
NOMINEES
Anomalisa
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
The Good Dinosaur
The Peanuts Movie
WILL WIN
Anomalisa. I'm surprised this isn't nominated in the Screenplay category, but this challenging film that I saw over a month ago and have yet to review is haunting and just the kind of film to shake up this race. I love Pixar and Aardman, but I can see the HFPA wanting to spread the love around a bit.
SHOULD WIN
Inside Out. Again, all five of these nominees are deserving of a statue, but Inside Out was an absolutely transcendent film. That it was bumped from the Best Picture Musical or Comedy race to make room for non-comedies like The Martian is mind-blowing to me. It should win both awards, plus screenplay.
Best Foreign Language Film
NOMINEES
The Brand New Testament
The Club
The Fencer
Mustang
Son of Saul
WILL WIN
Son of Saul
SHOULD WIN
Son of Saul. I haven't seen any of these, but everything I've heard about Son of Saul combined with the fact that it's a Holocaust movie made in Israel leads me to believe it's a lock, at least at the Oscars. It's going to come down to how political the HFPA wants to get. If the answer is "not very," look for Mustang to steal it because that movie's got a killer title, bro.
